Could American Pharoah Be the Next Sunday Silence?
By Kyle Rothfus - Horse Husband Stables
When Thoroughbred Daily News announced that American Pharoah will shuttle to Japan for the 2026 breeding season, it didn’t surprise me—it validated what many of us have been saying for years: Japan understands how to use a stallion like American Pharoah better than we do.
I’ve said for months that I wish the Japanese could buy American Pharoah outright, because only then would he finally get the chance to become the breed-shaping sire he’s meant to be. So imagine my delight when I read the announcement that AP is heading to Japan for the 2026 season. Even though I know Coolmore will likely never sell him, it’s gratifying to see him finally getting a full season to make an impact within the Japanese breeding program.
He’s already proven himself there. With only 88 runners in Japan, he’s produced 58 winners—a staggering 65% strike rate—including nine black-type scorers like dual G1 winner Café Pharoah. Yet in the United States, he’s often treated like a fading headline instead of a horse reshaping global pedigrees.
His upcoming shuttle season in Japan reminds me of the horse who first got me excited about Thoroughbred racing when I was a kid: Sunday Silence, the U.S. Triple Crown near-miss who went to Japan in 1990 and became the most influential sire in modern Japanese history.
Two Triple Crown Winners, Two Very Different Markets
At Ashford Stud, American Pharoah and Justify stand side by side as the only two living Triple Crown winners.
But while both rewrote racing history, their stud careers tell very different stories about how the industry measures value.
American Pharoah, now 13, stands for $45,000.
Justify, age 10, stands for $250,000.
That fivefold difference in price has little to do with performance and everything to do with perception.
Why Justify’s Stud Fee Soared
Justify’s value has skyrocketed because his progeny hit the ground running—literally. Within just a few crops, his foals were winning major races across multiple continents. In 2023 alone, he sired champion two-year-olds on both sides of the Atlantic: City of Troy and Opera Singer in Europe and Just F Y I in the U.S. That rare dual success made him one of the few American stallions to achieve global “super sire” status.
Coolmore capitalized quickly. His turf-dominant progeny created massive European demand, which in turn funneled higher-quality mares his way. That feedback loop—success leading to access, access creating more success—helped justify his soaring $250,000 stud fee in 2025.
The strength of his sire line also played a role. His late sire, Scat Daddy, was in enormous demand when he died unexpectedly in 2015, leaving Justify as his most commercially important son. Combine that with Justify’s imposing physique, strong movement, and instantly recognizable white blaze, and breeders had a clear reason to believe he could “stamp” his offspring with both talent and sale-ring appeal.
Why American Pharoah’s Value Adjusted
American Pharoah’s story unfolded differently. He entered stud with immense fanfare and a record-breaking $200,000 introductory fee. But his early crops, while solid, didn’t deliver the immediate Grade 1 splash American breeders expected—particularly on dirt.
His progeny thrived on turf and abroad, but U.S. markets tend to prize dirt form above all. When his foals didn’t dominate domestic dirt stakes, Coolmore adjusted his fee, first to $110,000, then $80,000, and ultimately to $45,000, where it has remained stable and accessible.
Yet AP’s recent record suggests his story isn’t one of decline—it’s one of redistribution. His turf runners have excelled internationally, and in 2025 he had two starters in the Kentucky Derby, reaffirming his relevance and consistency.
In short, Justify’s rise and AP’s recalibration reflect more about market psychology than genetic worth. One was rewarded for immediate, high-profile returns; the other penalized for subtlety and longevity.
How Maturation and Surface Preferences Shape Market Value
The difference in perception between these two stallions is rooted not only in their offspring’s success but in how and where that success happens.
American Pharoah: A Less Lucrative but Reliable Choice
AP’s progeny tend to mature later and perform best on turf. For the American commercial market—where dirt racing and early 2-year-old form dominate sale prices—that’s a disadvantage.
Financial risk: U.S. breeders prioritize stallions that can produce precocious dirt runners who win early and often. Turf specialists or later bloomers, no matter how talented, require patience—and patience costs money. Delayed returns make breeders nervous, especially when foals from “unfashionable” lines can be injured before reaching their peak.
Surface preference: Turf racing is gaining popularity but still lags behind dirt in purse size and prestige. The Kentucky Derby remains the sport’s pinnacle, and stallions who produce classic dirt performers command higher fees and stronger mare support.
Market correction: Because AP’s progeny showed greater turf aptitude and slower development, his fee dropped from $200,000 to $45,000—a reflection of commercial preference, not performance decline. For breeders focused on long-term reliability and international appeal, that adjustment has made him one of the most underrated values in North America.
Justify: A High-Reward Investment
Justify, by contrast, perfectly fits the mold of a high-reward, low-wait stallion.
Fast returns: His progeny excel as early two- and three-year-olds, aligning perfectly with the American market’s craving for instant success. Classic dirt-track triumphs drive stud value faster than any turf win ever could.
Mitigated risk: His international success—proving dominant on both turf and dirt—has diversified his market appeal, making his high stud fee feel like a calculated investment rather than a gamble.
Elite pedigree: With Scat Daddy’s early passing, Justify inherited the full weight of that bloodline’s commercial potential. His continued success ensures Coolmore’s ability to command premium pricing.
Stamping ability: Breeders and buyers also consistently remark on how recognizable his offspring are—big, athletic, and carrying his trademark white blaze. In a marketplace that values both physicality and predictability, that’s gold.
The Market’s Bottom Line
Ultimately, the disparity between the two isn’t about quality—it’s about timing, surface, and expectation.
Justify’s offspring check every box for the American market: early, fast, dirt-classic potential.
AP’s offspring shine later and on turf, making them less “fashionable” domestically but far more versatile internationally.
Both paths can yield brilliance. But only one currently earns a six-figure stud fee.
And it reinforces the broader problem: stallion pricing often reflects what buyers want to see at the next sale, not what horses do on the track.
When You Measure Efficiency, Not Hype
Let’s look past headline earnings and ask a more meaningful question:
What percentage of a stallion’s foals actually become racehorses—and how many win once they do?
American Pharoah (AP)
891 named foals
685 starters (77% of foals made it to the track)
428 winners (48% of foals became winners)
Average earnings per named foal: $78,680
Average lifetime earnings per runner: $102,333
Justify
532 named foals
390 starters (73% of foals made it to the track)
216 winners (41% of foals became winners)
Average earnings per named foal: $78,700
Average lifetime earnings per runner: $107,349
So while their average earnings per foal are nearly identical, AP gets more of his foals to the races and more of them into the winner’s circle.
And he does it with a stud fee that’s one-fifth the cost.
In other words: better conversion, lower cost.
That’s not lower demand — that’s better value.
The Stud Fee Story Behind the Numbers
AP entered stud in 2016 at $200,000 — fitting for a Triple Crown winner breaking a 37-year drought. But since then, his fee has fallen every few years, reaching $45,000 in 2025 despite consistent performance and global strike rate.
While AP’s stud fee has dropped nearly 80% since his debut, Justify’s has risen above its original peak despite offspring with similar performance to AP and significantly less return on investment (ROI).
And it reinforces the broader problem: stallion pricing often reflects what buyers want to see at the next sale, not what horses do on the track.
What a Breeder or Buyer Can Really Expect
To understand the true return on investment, let’s follow the path of the same foal through three different lenses: breeder-racer, breeder-seller, and buyer-racer.
🐎 If You Breed to Race
If I breed to AP:
I pay a $45,000 stud fee.
I can expect, on average, a 77% chance the foal will make the races and a 48% chance it will win.
The average AP runner earns $102,000 lifetime — more than double the stud fee.
If I breed to Justify:
I pay a $250,000 stud fee.
I have about a 73% chance the foal will make the races and a 41% chance it will win.
The average Justify runner earns $107,000 lifetime — less than half the stud fee.
Verdict: If your goal is to breed a racehorse, AP provides far greater value and a higher likelihood of return.
💰 If You Breed to Sell
If I breed to AP:
I pay a $45,000 stud fee.
His yearlings averaged $122,976 in 2025 and $121,224 as 2-year-olds.
That’s roughly 2.7× the stud fee — a modest but stable resale return.
If I breed to Justify:
I pay a $250,000 stud fee.
His yearlings averaged $356,754 in 2025 and $273,352 as 2-year-olds.
That’s about 1.1–1.4× the stud fee — a much tighter margin that depends on sale fashion.
Verdict: AP gives you a more sustainable sales ROI, while Justify’s depends heavily on staying “in style.”
🎯 If You Buy to Race
If I buy an AP yearling:
I pay about $123,000.
The average AP runner earns $102,000 lifetime.
That means I’m unlikely to break even — but I lose less ground compared to other stallions.
If I buy a Justify yearling:
I pay about $356,000.
The average Justify runner earns $107,000 lifetime.
I’m paying three times as much for nearly the same racing outcome.
Verdict: For buyers who race, AP offspring are the smarter economic play. You’ll pay less for comparable racetrack performance.
The Sales-to-Racing ROI Problem
To see how deep this imbalance runs, think about what happens after the hammer falls.
A breeder paying $45,000 to breed to AP and selling the foal as a yearling for about $123,000 more than doubles the stud fee — a solid short-term profit if you’re breeding to sell.
But for the buyer, that same yearling now needs to earn back $123,000 in purse money just to break even on purchase price — and that’s before the cost of training, shipping, vet bills, or a single start.
Even if that buyer purchased one of AP’s above-average earners, with his runners averaging about $102,000 in lifetime earnings per starter, the math rarely balances.
Now scale that up to Justify. Buyers are paying an average of $356,000 for his yearlings, chasing that Triple Crown brand. His runners earn roughly the same per-horse average — about $107,000.
That means both horses produce runners who can more than return the stud fee, but almost never return the sale price. And AP can return the stud fee either through sale OR racing while Justify can only return the stud fee at sale.
The biggest profit stays in the sales ring, not the starting gate — which explains why our market keeps prioritizing “what sells” over “what runs.”
Japan vs. U.S.: Where He’s Truly Thriving
In Japan, AP’s progeny have produced 58 winners from 88 runners — a 66% win rate.
In the U.S., he’s had 428 winners from 685 runners — a 62% win rate.
Justify’s North American record sits at 216 winners from 390 starters — 55%.
Japan’s environment simply suits AP better. The racing system values stamina, turf versatility, and long-term soundness — all qualities he consistently passes on.
Smaller books and thoughtful mare pairings also mean his Japanese offspring aren’t just running — they’re winning more often.
The Bigger Picture: Why Japan’s System Works
Japan’s model rewards precisely this kind of balance. The JBBA (Japanese Bloodhorse Breeders’ Association) limits book sizes, encourages strategic mare placement, and measures success through longevity, soundness, and race performance — not sale prices.
Their stallions stand for what they produce, not just what they sell for.
That’s why AP’s 66% win rate there isn’t a coincidence — it’s a result of thoughtful pairing and a racing system built for endurance, not turnover.
Sunday Silence, Revisited
In 1989, Sunday Silence was the American champion US breeders were not ready to breed to. Despite winning the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Breeders’ Cup Classic, breeders dismissed him for his unconventional pedigree and questionable conformation. In 1990, he was sold and exported to Japan, where he began a legacy no one in the U.S. saw coming.
From 1995 to 2007, Sunday Silence dominated Japan’s sire ranks — 13 consecutive years as the nation’s leading sire, setting an unprecedented record for the Japanese breeding industry. His progeny went on to earn an estimated $800 million, making him the world’s leading stallion by total earnings.
Even decades after his death in 2002, his influence is everywhere. He topped the North American broodmare sire list in 2016 and 2019 once adjusted Japanese earnings were factored in, and his bloodline continues to shape global pedigrees through sons like Deep Impact and Heart’s Cry, whose offspring have won elite races in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Dubai.
His success wasn’t an accident — it was a reflection of how Japan rewards balance, data, and patient development over short-term sales performance.
Now, more than three decades later, AP might be poised to repeat that story.
What the U.S. Can Learn
AP’s numbers don’t just reflect his own ability — they expose a blind spot in how American breeding evaluates stallions.
We glorify volume over viability.
We chase auction averages instead of race results.
And in doing so, we often send our best stallions elsewhere to be appreciated.
If Japan turns AP into the next Sunday Silence, it won’t mean he’s been lost.
It’ll mean someone finally measured success by what matters.
From Foal to Forever
We believe true greatness in breeding isn’t about price tags — it’s about performance, purpose, and the horses who prove that value lasts longer than fashion. Follow along as we continue exploring how the future of Thoroughbred breeding depends on how we measure it.
